Orange County Market Update
Chapel Hill, Carrboro & Hillsborough — the September numbers from Triangle MLS, and what they mean if you are buying or selling this fall. Refreshed monthly.
The read
Expensive, and suddenly well-supplied.
Orange County — Chapel Hill, Carrboro and Hillsborough — is the smallest of the five by sales count and the most volatile month to month, so read one month’s median with care. September’s median sale price is $495,000, down 2.9% from last September, but it follows a summer that printed above $560,000 three months running. The underlying trend is flat-to-up.
The real story is inventory. Active listings are up 38% to 582 and months of supply have climbed to 4.8 from the 2s in winter. Closings rose 14% to 115, so demand is intact — buyers simply have options for the first time in years. Homes take 49 days to go under contract, +4 versus a year ago.
Five counties, one region
Where Orange sits against its neighbors.
Wake sets the pace, Durham moved the most, Orange and Chatham carry the highest price points on the fewest sales, and Johnston is the value county that is still appreciating.
| County | Median sale price | Days on market | Homes sold | Active listings | Supply | P&I on the median* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake →Wake County | $460,000-1.1% YoY | 49 days-3 vs last year | 1,350-2.5% YoY | 5,441+8.8% YoY | 3.8 mo | $2,548/mo |
| Durham →Durham County | $420,000-6.7% YoY | 54 days-20 vs last year | 347+3.9% YoY | 1,497+14.3% YoY | 4.2 mo | $2,326/mo |
| OrangeOrange County | $495,000-2.9% YoY | 49 days+4 vs last year | 115+13.9% YoY | 582+37.9% YoY | 4.8 mo | $2,742/mo |
| Johnston →Johnston County | $364,900+4.3% YoY | 71 days+12 vs last year | 320-10.4% YoY | 1,636+12.0% YoY | 4.8 mo | $2,021/mo |
| Chatham →Chatham County | $645,295-2.3% YoY | 49 days-5 vs last year | 88-10.2% YoY | 465+17.4% YoY | 4.8 mo | $3,574/mo |
*Principal and interest at this week’s 7.40% 30-year rate with 20% down. Supply is months of inventory at the current sales pace. See the full mortgage update →
What it means
Buying or selling in Orange County.
More choice, and more leverage.
- Inventory is up about 38% to 582 homes and months of supply sit at 4.8. Negotiate on price, repairs, closing costs and timing — often more than one.
- The 30-year added 74 basis points in eight weeks, so run the payment before you settle on a price range. Builder rate buydowns in the Triangle are worth a real look if your search includes new construction.
- Get a sewer scope on anything built before 1985 and ask about well and septic outside municipal limits — common in Chatham, Johnston and northern Wake.
Price to this market, not last year’s.
- The median home takes 49 days to go under contract. Past 30 days it is usually the price talking, not the market.
- Treat the first two weeks as your best shot at full price. Expect more negotiation on repairs and terms than a year ago.
- Pre-list inspection and a clean disclosure package shorten the negotiation window and keep the deal together.
The payment
What the median Orange County home costs each month.
$495,000 with 20% down is a $396,000 loan. Here is the principal and interest at this week’s rate, last week’s, and a year ago.
Rates are Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average. Full mortgage update → · Current Triangle builder incentives →
Region-wide
Our latest Triangle updates.
Cape Fear Market Update — October 26, 2026
New Hanover's year-over-year decline narrowed to 1.3% on September data and the 30-year fixed eased to 7.32%, its first drop since August.
Read the update →Cape Fear Market Update — October 12, 2026
The 30-year fixed climbed to 7.40%, adding about $100 a month to a $400,000 loan since our last update, while county medians held roughly flat.
Read the update →Cape Fear Market Update — September 28, 2026
New Hanover prices turned negative year over year while Brunswick's gain narrowed, and the 30-year fixed crossed 7% at 7.03%.
Read the update →Sources: Triangle MLS (Doorify) market statistics for Orange County, residential property class, pulled October 27, 2026 — median sold price, average days on market, closed sales and active listings are September 2026 against September 2025; months of supply is the MLS absorption rate for September 2026. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 15, 2026. County-level figures, not a valuation of any specific property. Payment figures are principal and interest only on a 30-year fixed loan with 20% down; they exclude taxes, insurance and HOA and are illustrative, not a loan offer.
Want a read on your street?
County medians are a starting point. We will tell you what your neighborhood is doing this month.
Photo: Dennis Ludlow – Sharkshock (CC BY-SA 4.0) via Wikimedia Commons